Chapter 11: Dilemmas of Development

Action:

All International Financial Flows
Kashmir would open up to both private and official financial flows.

Outcome:

You have made a series of choices as the Secretary of Economic Development of Kashmir. Let's analyze each of your choices.

The Washington Consensus model of economic development champions unregulated liberal capitalism. The competition drives your domestic firms to continuously innovate and charge lower prices. Some unprotected firms will get priced out, and Kashmir will experience economic volatility sometimes. Overall, your domestic economy will grow and improve over time.

Import-substituting industrialization is a market-controlling strategy that avoids international economic linkages to support national champion firms instead. High tariffs decrease the importation of manufactured goods into Kashmir, while subsidies streamline domestic industrialization. In the short term, this strategy will result in solid growth and industrialization, but in the long term, the high tariff walls and subsidies will suppress incentives for national champion firms to innovate and charge lower prices. The subsidies will also slowly run up Kashmir's deficits and create a national debt.

Access to both private and official financial flows of foreign capital will give both your government and your domestic firms access to foreign capital that is necessary for investment. In particular, foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises will drive domestic competition and bring technology, labor, capital, and managerial expertise to your domestic markets. Unfortunately, the volatility of other private financial flows will threaten financial crises. Official development assistance will help your economy grow (as long as the funds are not in the hands of corrupt politicians) with little risk of hamstringing Kashmir with devastating repayment terms. Loans from multilateral institutions will prove valuable when you need foreign capital in time-sensitive situations, but may hurt Kashmiri development in the long run given their harsh conditions and repayment terms. Overall, your domestic economy will surely grow, but there is a slight chance you may run into the development problems sub-Saharan African countries face.

Overall, you have done a fair job as the Kashmiri economy will likely grow moderately, but your development choices leave Kashmir vulnerable to stagnation and some level of economic volatility and over-reliance on external sources of capital (although your layered approach to foreign capital helps).


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