Chapter 11: Dilemmas of Development

Action:

Official Financial Flows
Official financial flows originate with government entities, including individual governments and inter-governmental organizations. There are two basic kinds of official financial flows to developing countries: official development assistance (ODA) and multilateral organizations' loans. This approach would require you to join the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and International Monetary Fund.

Outcome:

You have made a series of choices as the Secretary of Economic Development of Kashmir. Let's analyze each of your choices.

The Beijing Consensus model of economic development maximizes state control on economic development through state capitalism. Many firms are state-owned enterprises. Kashmiri firms will rarely experience economic volatility because your government will bail out its key industries' firms when necessary. However, these firms will have less incentive to innovate and charge lower prices, so your domestic economy will not grow and improve as much over time as an unregulated liberal capitalist economy.

Import-substituting industrialization is a market-controlling strategy that avoids international economic linkages to support national champion firms instead. High tariffs decrease the importation of manufactured goods into Kashmir, while subsidies streamline domestic industrialization. In the short term, this strategy will result in solid growth and industrialization, but in the long term, the high tariff walls and subsidies will suppress incentives for national champion firms to innovate and charge lower prices. The subsidies will also slowly run up Kashmir's deficits and create a national debt.

Official financial flows will give your government access to foreign capital that you can then invest in domestic firms. Bilateral official development assistance (ODA) will help your government avoid a poverty trap, but may foster an over-reliance on international actors for domestic investment. That being said, ODA will help your economy grow (as long as the funds are not in the hands of corrupt politicians) with little risk of hamstringing Kashmir with devastating repayment terms. Loans from multilateral institutions will prove valuable when you need foreign capital in time-sensitive situations, but may hurt Kashmiri development in the long run given their harsh conditions and repayment terms. Overall, your domestic economy will benefit from official financial flows, but you may become too dependent on these sources of capital.

Overall, you have done a fair job as the Kashmiri economy will likely grow moderately, but your development choices lower Kashmiri growth's ceiling and leave you vulnerable to over-reliance on external sources of capital.


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