Chapter 11: Dilemmas of Development

Action:

All International Financial Flows
Kashmir would open up to both private and official financial flows.

Outcome:

You have made a series of choices as the Secretary of Economic Development of Kashmir. Let's analyze each of your choices.

The Beijing Consensus model of economic development maximizes state control on economic development through state capitalism. Many firms are state-owned enterprises. Kashmiri firms will rarely experience economic volatility because your government will bail out its key industries' firms when necessary. However, these firms will have less incentive to innovate and charge lower prices, so your domestic economy will not grow and improve as much over time as an unregulated liberal capitalist economy.

Export-led growth is a market-accepting strategy that embraces international linkages, while helping firms that export goods to the world economy. This was the strategy of choice among the four Asian Tigers of Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. All benefitted greatly from economic integration's development opportunities, including access to technology, labor, capital, and managerial expertise. At the same time, domestic firms were able to compete with the rough international competition through subsidies and preferential access to foreign currency. You can expect the same success with Kashmir.

Access to both private and official financial flows of foreign capital will give both your government and your domestic firms access to foreign capital that is necessary for investment. In particular, foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises will drive domestic competition and bring technology, labor, capital, and managerial expertise to your domestic markets. Unfortunately, the volatility of other private financial flows will threaten financial crises. ODA will help your economy grow (as long as the funds are not in the hands of corrupt politicians) with little risk of hamstringing Kashmir with devastating repayment terms. Loans from multilateral institutions will prove valuable when you need foreign capital in time-sensitive situations, but may hurt Kashmiri development in the long run given their harsh conditions and repayment terms. Overall, your domestic economy will surely grow, but there is a slight chance you may run into the development problems sub-Saharan African countries face.

Overall, you have done a good job as the Kashmiri economy will likely grow moderately and stably, but your development choices lower Kashmiri growth's ceiling.


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