Chapter 12: Non-State Actors and Challenges to Sovereignty

Action:

International assistance
Intervention should be avoided at all costs. The US should help weak and failed states gain legitimacy through foreign aid and other forms of assistance. This choice requires the US to increase its foreign aid and assistance programs. In truly dire situations, the US would support UN-led peacekeeping interventions but would still condemn outright unilateral military intervention.

Outcome:

As President George W. Bush, you have made a series of choices dealing with America's counter-terrorism policies. Let's analyze your choices and their implications.

The foreign aid to the government in Kabul will be ineffective at empowering the central government enough to drive out the Taliban. At this point, the Taliban are too strong for the Kabul-based government to deal with. This means al-Qaeda will continue to utilize Afghanistan as a safe haven. That being said, if another terrorist attack on American soil were to occur, then your forward presence in the Middle East would be utilized to stage an intervention.

Furthermore, after a new round of IAEA inspections, it is found that Iraq is not pursuing nuclear weapons, but that they maintain a stockpile of chemical weapons that could be transferred to terrorists. Saddam Hussein decides to pursue stringent safeguards and allow future IAEA inspections in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions on Iraq. However, Iraq could easily hide a smaller stockpile of chemical weapons if it so chooses.

Next, you decided to increase American foreign assistance to future weak and failed states. Foreign aid is generally ineffective. The recipient government must be able and willing to efficiently allocate these resources. Corrupt officials, authoritarianism, lack of distribution networks, and strong non-state groups all threaten the effectiveness of the aid. Minimizing interventionism in the long run may reduce the probability of blowback radicalization and terrorism, but you should expect terrorism to continue to thrive as safe havens will likely continue to exist.

The issues of terrorism and weak/failed states do not have easy solutions, but you have done a subpar job. You have not sufficiently dealt with the threat of al-Qaeda in the short term nor have you shown credible commitment to future intervention. Furthermore, you have not assuaged the American public and will not get re-elected in 2004.


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