Chapter 2: The Emergence of a Global System of States

Summary

The year is 2037. You are the senior national security adviser to the newly elected President of the United States. Upon taking office, a crisis that has been heating up for the past ten years confronts your administration. Iran, now a nuclear nation that has spent the past five years building up its arsenal, is threatening to engage Israel militarily over Israel's aggressive actions on the Lebanese border.

Important background information

Israel has been making incursions into Lebanese territory in response to attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli towns and settlements. While the US has classified the Hezbollah attacks as terrorist attacks and stands behind Israel, many in the international community have condemned Israel's responses and argue that Israel is violating Lebanon's sovereignty.

Iran argues that by moving any military forces into Lebanon, Israel has 'commenced war activities' against Lebanon. Thus, in accord with its alliance with Lebanon, Iran argues it is obliged to defend Lebanon militarily against the threat, and is therefore justified in commencing military operations against Israel.

Iran's nuclear arsenal is large enough to cause massive and widespread damage to all of Israel's major cities. Whether Iran possesses the ability to reach the United States with a nuclear weapon is unknown but doubtful.

What do you do?

Do nothing	See how things pan out. Iran has postured a lot in the past, and the threat may fail to materialize.
Impose sanctions on Iran	Set these at a seemingly unbearable level. Make it clear that if Iran does not back down, the US will cripple the Iranian economy.
Send troops to Israel	Send the signal that the US is behind Israel and is willing to fight on Israel's behalf (without actually engaging Iran).
Invade Iran	Iran has made it clear that it is not attentive to diplomatic signals. Only direct military confrontation will get the message across.
Launch a nuclear strike against Iran	It is too risky to leave open the possibility that Iran strikes first. Additionally, Iran has made it clear that it is not attentive to diplomacy. Rather than put boots on the ground and in harm's way, keep US troops home, send a clear message, and try to cripple Iranian military and nuclear capabilities.
Lobby the UN	Request coalitional military action against Iran. Avoid making the US the sole enemy; gain international legitimacy for any military action.