Chapter 5: Framing International Relations - The Role of Laws and Organizations

Summary

You are the president of Songhai, a coastal state in the western Sahara. Kabi, a landlocked neighboring state, has become increasingly unstable over the past decade. A prolonged slump in gas prices combined with rampant corruption has left the Kabi economy in shambles and led to the rise of extreme ethnonationalism. Recently, Kabites have elected a new, extremist prime minister. She has promised to bring the Kabi economy back on track, and blames the woes of her nation upon the large minority of immigrant and immigrant descended citizens, including a contingent of ethnically Songhai Kabi citizens, within her nation. In the past week, her government has introduced a new identification system that prominently displays whether one is ethnically Kabite or not. Reports indicate outbreaks of violence as the Kabite army brutally represses several protests by minority groups, leading to several dozen deaths. The risk of violent civil war or outright genocide increases with the day as minority groups begin organizing paramilitary groups. Your foreign minister has raised his concerns to you, and it is now up to you to decide how to proceed before it’s too late.

Important background information

Kabi has three other neighboring states, all of which also have concerns about the safety of their civilians within Kabi. Kabi’s neighbors have poor relations with Kabi and smaller militaries, though they do trade extensively
We have historically tight relations with both Kabi and its neighbors.
Songhai’s military is historically on par with Kabi’s, though a decade of weak leadership and funding has left your army with a lead in overall effectiveness. In an outright fight, we would likely win, though not without heavy losses on both sides
Though in recent times relations have been relatively peaceful, there has been a history of ethnic violence in region that all ethnic groups have both perpetrated nad been on the receiving end of
Our two nations economies are tightly intertwined. Nearly Kabi gas pipes travel through our nation, both providing the majority of our power and a majority of Kabi fossil fuel exports.
Kabi has a close relationship with the Russian Federation. It is a large customer of Russian arms and exports much of its gas to SIberia.

What do you do?

Negotiate bilaterally with Kabi	We are uniquely positioned to affect change in the current situation. The Kabite prime minister is only a phone call away.
Reach out to Kabi’s neighbors	Our efforts will only be augmented by the combined efforts of our neighbors. Fortunately, a regional summit where all three heads of state will be in attendance is occuring in only a few days.
Reach out to the UN	Reaching out to the UN for arbitration of the dispute will allow us to engage great powers and claim international support
Reach out to Human Rights NGOs	NGOs play a key role in the monitoring of human rights around the world. We should reach out to a group like Amnesty International with our findings.
Claim R2P and protect Songhai citizens through armed intervention	Innocent citizens are in danger. It is an obligation to protect them.
Encourage Songhai citizens to evacuate, but otherwise respect Kabi sovereignty	What another sovereign nation does is no business of ours. The consequences of intervention could be too great.