Chapter 14 – Governing: Cabinet Formation

#CONGRATULATIONS! The President has phoned and congratulated you on your nomination by parliament as prime minister (PM). She looks forward to receiving your nomination list for the cabinet and the chief legal officer for your new government. She reminds you that the state has been through a turbulent period following the regional scandals during the last administration. This is a time for healing and she recommends that you keep this in mind as you work with the leaders of the two other parties that will join your coalition to form the government. She also mentions her preference for gender balance. [[Election Background]]

#ELECTION BACKGROUND You are delighted to be nominated as PM. This is a crowning moment in your political career. But now you are coming to terms with the election outcome. Your party Global First didn’t do as well as had been expected. The outgoing administration was dogged by scandals but you made a mess of the election debates and many votes that should have gone to Global First went to the Liberal Front and other parties. Liberal Front formed as a regional breakaway party from Global First 10 years ago in a bitter row about the salaries of state employees. Relations with the Liberal Front are often tetchy and they have a list of demands which will annoy many in your own party. The Social Democrats have also agreed to join the coalition. You work well with them but they have also demands about new economic regulations but more immediately, they want a gender balanced cabinet and equal regional representation. [[Political Profile]]

#POLITICAL PROFILE <table>\ <tr><th>Political Party</th><th>Number of MPs</th><th>Gender breakdown Women (W), Men (M)</th><th>Regional breakdown</th></tr>\ <tr><td>Global First</td><td>68</td><td>19W, 49M</td><td>All regions</td></tr>\ <tr><td>United Atlantic</td><td>59</td><td>21W, 38M</td><td>All regions</td></tr>\ <tr><td>Social Democrats</td><td>29</td><td>16W, 13M</td><td>All regions</td></tr>\ <tr><td>Liberal Front</td><td>14</td><td>2W, 12M</td><td>Western Province only</td></tr>\ <tr><td>Christian Democrats</td><td>12</td><td>1W, 11M</td><td>Western Province, Southern Territory, Capital</td></tr>\ <tr><td>National Alliance</td><td>7</td><td>1W, 6M</td><td>Western Province, Southern Territory</td></tr>\ <tr><td>Non-party</td><td>21</td><td>7W, 14M</td><td>All regions</td></tr>\ <tr><td>Total</td><td>210</td><td>67W, 144M</td><td></td></tr>\ </table> [[Cabinet Conundrum]]

#CABINET CONUNDRUM Your coalition is made up of Global First, the Social Democrats and the Liberal Front. Ideally, you want your cabinet to be made up in the following way: * A deputy PM (also a cabinet minister). * 14 cabinet ministers. * A regional balance (5 ministers from the capital, 4 from the Western Province and 2 each from the remaining 3 regions). * A gender balance (at least 7 women in cabinet). The Social Democrats have 29 MPs. Their leader is a woman and the MPs are all very capable and some have held office before. Liberal Front only have seats in the Western Province. Some of the MPs are libertarian ideologues and are very unpopular in many parts of the country, the leader is one of those. Global First have seats in the 5 provinces and 19 women. None of the women MPs have any cabinet experience. You have been leader for 4 years, had a bad election and now you hear that there is a group in your party meeting in secret to get rid of you. You call them the dissident cabal. --- [[Scenario 1]]: You draw up an offer for each party and meet the leader in private. You agree to regional balance and a gender mix of at least 1/3 women. You offer the Social Democrats deputy PM and 3 ministries; Liberal Front get 2 ministries and you insist 1 is a woman. You choose 9 from your own party, excluding all 11 in the dissident cabal organising against you. [[Scenario 2]]: You hold a meeting of all the leaders together and have an open discussion about how to form the cabinet. You provide broad parameters that Social Democrats should get 4 ministries, Liberal Front 2 and Global First 9. [[Scenario 3]]: You draw up an offer for each party, meet the leader in private. You agree to regional balance and gender balance of 40%. You offer the Social Democrats deputy PM and 3 ministries; Liberal Front get 2 ministries and you insist 1 is a woman. You choose 9 from Global First. You include the leader of the cabal organising against you and 1 woman from this group. You add 3 other women from your support base and 4 men and you have ministers from each region. [[Back to Political Profile Table->Political Profile]]

#OPEN NEGOTIATION You bring the leaders of the Social Democrats and the Liberal Front together with two senior members of Global First. You outline your preferred allocation of seats. The negotiations are disorderly. A dispute emerges between the leaders of the Social Democrats and Liberal Front about the finance ministry. There are major differences of opinion about economic policy. The Liberal Front announce that they also want the education portfolio. This raises suspicions among the Social Democrats. Liberal Front had included an education privatisation plan in their manifesto. This was rejected in the coalition negotiations so the Social Democrats announce that they won’t agree to a Liberal Front education minister. You point out that you are concerned about having several women without cabinet experience in the government. This draws the ire of the leader of the Social Democrats. She is very annoyed and questions your commitment to equality. She also reminds you that the President has encouraged gender equality and regional balance. As PM, you decide that each party should have at least one female cabinet minister. The Social Democrats denounce this as tokenism and make clear it will lead to a public backlash. The two members from Global First are from your support base but they want to ensure that the dissident cabal get no position and they announce this resulting in an open row about how government formation is not the place for dealing with party conflicts. The meeting breaks up amidst shouting and bad feeling. **What do you do?** [[Stick with your plan->Stick with your plan 2]] [[Offer concessions->Offer concessions 2]]

#CONSIDERED NEGOTIATION You meet the leaders of the two parties separately and outline your proposals. You explain that you think these are generous proposals and developed in the spirit of regional and gender balance as requested by the president. The Social Democrats think this is a good opening offer but they are keen to have the finance ministry. They plan to have 2 ministers from the Western Province, this is a problem for you as you had planned to have 1 from there too and Liberal Front only has MPs in this region. If you concede on this you will need to take back something. The leader of the Social Democrats also pushes you further on gender balance. You agree to more discussions. Liberal Front reject the proposal outright. They only have MPs in 1 region and have only 2 women MPs both just elected. The leader demands the finance ministry and says he will not countenance participation in a government with a left wing finance minister. He says cabinet positions should be about merit and ability and he won’t be bowing to a gender agenda. He walks out of the meeting. The parliamentary party meeting of Global First goes well. MPs from the capital are pleased about the regional and gender balance. They would have liked finance but international affairs is prestigious. The dissident cabal are surprised by the magnanimity in the proposals and say nothing. **What do you do?** [[Stick with your plan->Stick with your plan 3]] [[Offer concessions->Offer concessions 3]]

#Overplaying your hand The Social Democrats are happy with the positions and accept deputy PM. They will nominate 2 ministers from the capital and 2 from the Western Province but they demand 50:50 gender balance, and also want the finance ministry. You can’t agree to finance: you know Liberal Front will never agree to a left wing finance minister. And the regional balance is a problem. You also want to nominate a Western Province minister from Global First. You only have 2 seats there and you need to bolster them with a ministry. Liberal Front reject the proposal outright. They only have MPs in one region and have only 2 women MPs. The leader demands the finance ministry for his party and says that he will not be nominating a female minister, thereby violating the 2 principles of cabinet formation the president requested. The meeting with Global First ends badly. The two Western Province MPs are enraged when they find out that neither will become a minister because of the coalitions partners. The conservative wing of the party are very disparaging about the gender requirement which causes heated exchanges with some MPs from the capital. The dissident cabal remain silent but you hear after the meeting that they are meeting to discuss a no confidence motion in your leadership. **What do you do?** [[Stick with your plan]] [[Offer concessions]]

#STICK WITH YOUR PLAN You decide to stick with your cabinet plan. Parliament has nominated you and you have a constitutional mandate. You organise a second round of meetings and demand that your coalition partners fall in line. The government programme has been agreed, this is just an issue of personnel. The Social Democrats reluctantly come on board but Liberal Front refuse the budge. You always had a poor relationship with the leader and this makes the meeting even more difficult. It eventually breaks up amid recriminations. Two hours later, your assistant comes into your office: the Liberal Front leader is on the evening news and has declared that he is walking away from the coalition because he can’t trust Global First and the Social Democrats are a threat to the economy. Your majority has evaporated and politics is in turmoil, you have to go back to the beginning and open negotiations with one of the other parties in parliament. The president is not impressed and the dissident cadre in your own party are emboldened and are briefing the media against you. [[Start Again]]

#OFFER CONCESSIONS You are very annoyed: Parliament has nominated you so you have a constitutional mandate. But this is probably your last chance to govern. You decide on concessions. Each party will have to give something. You develop new proposals and agree to meet the leaders separately. The finance ministry will go to your own party Global First but to compensate for this you agree to allocate an additional cabinet post to the Social Democrats. You propose that the chief legal officer of the government will come from the Liberal Front. Given the tensions over finance, you offer the Liberal Front the international affairs ministry which carries high status and also the economy portfolio. The economy ministry covers economic regulation and employment matters. It does not have a big budget but it does offer influence in key areas. You are magnanimous with your own party offering ministries to the dissident cabal, albeit some of the lesser portfolios. Having taken finance for Global First, you forego having a minister from the Western Province. You are not all that pushed about gender balance but it is an issue for many in your party so you agree to nominate four women among your eight ministers. [[Offer Concessions continued...]]

#STICK WITH YOUR PLAN You are very annoyed: Parliament has nominated you and the negotiations were a mess. But you decide to hold firm. You call each of the leaders in separately and tell them you are sticking with your plan to allocate 9 ministries to Global First and the chief legal officer post, deputy PM and 3 ministries to the Social Democrats and 2 ministries to Liberal Front. You give finance to the Social Democrats but the other ministries are fairly uninteresting and have low budgets. Education goes to the Liberal Front. Justice and defence stay with your own party. You tell each of the leaders they need to sort out gender and regional balance within their own groups. You will be nominating three women ministers and will have at least one minister in each region. The Social Democrats’ leader is appalled you are not overseeing the gender and regional balance and she is not happy with the ministries. She will have to consult her party but thinks they won’t accept the proposals. The Liberal Front want the finance post and they are not happy with economy and culture. These ministries have small budgets and not have enough influence. They only have MPs in the Western Province so they will not be delivering on regional balance and they are hostile to gender balance. The leader is a hot head and he decides to walk out of the meeting, collapsing the nascent coalition. Your majority is gone, you call the leader of the Social Democrats to notify her, and coalition formation negotiations will have to start again. [[Start Again]]

#OFFER CONCESSIONS You are very annoyed: Parliament has nominated you, giving you a constitutional mandate. But this is probably your only chance to govern. You decide on concessions. Each party will have to give something. You develop new proposals and agree to meet the leaders separately. You decide that finance will go to your own party Global First but to compensate for this you agree to allocate an additional cabinet post to the Social Democrats giving them deputy PM and 4 other ministries. You propose that the chief legal officer of the government will come from Liberal Front. Given the tensions over finance, you offer the Liberal Front the international affairs ministry which carries high status, and also the economy portfolio. The economy ministry covers economic regulation and employment matters. It does not have a big budget but it does offer influence in key areas. You are magnanimous with your own party offering ministries to the dissident cabal, albeit some of the lesser portfolios; culture and defence. Having taken finance for Global First, you forego having a minister from the Western Province. You are not all that pushed about gender balance but it is an issue for many in your party so you agree to nominate four women among your eight ministers. [[Offer concessions continued...->Offer concessions continued 2]]

#Offer concessions continued... The Social Democrats are mollified by the new proposals, they would prefer finance but are happy with education, justice, social affairs and regional development, all big spending ministries. They will have gender balance in their ministries, the deputy PM will be a woman and Global First will also have gender balance. They wash their hands of Liberal Front, calling them rude names. You are hopeful of a deal but worry about managing this government. Liberal Front are still not sure about the proposal. They are pleased with the offer of the legal officer. They know a conservative attorney who would be ideal. They haven’t gotten the ministries they wanted but neither did the Social Democrats, that helps, and they are having none of the gender balance thing! They go away to think about the offer. The meeting with your own party goes better. The finance ministry is a big win and MPs from the capital are pleased about the gender balance, it puts 2 of them into cabinet. You have a quiet word with the Western Province MPs, promising extra resources and positions in parliament. They aren’t happy but stay onside. The dissident cabal are caught off guard by the offer of cabinet positions and a reluctant compromise emerges. The Liberal Front phone to say they are on board. Nearing exhaustion, you phone the president to say that you have a deal. **End of negotiation** [[Start Again]]

#Offer concessions continued... The Social Democrats are mollified by the new proposals, they would prefer to have had finance but are happy with education, justice, social affairs and regional development. These are big spending ministries. They will have gender balance in their ministries and the deputy PM will also be a woman. They are pleased to hear that Global First will also have gender balance and they wash their hands of the Liberal Front, calling them rude names. You are hopeful of a deal but worry about managing this group. Liberal Front are still not sure about the proposal. They are pleased with the offer of the legal officer. They know a conservative attorney who would be ideal. They haven’t gotten the ministries they wanted but neither did the Social Democrats so that helps and they are having none of the gender balance thing. They go away to think about the offer. The meeting with your own party goes better. The finance ministry is a big win and the MPs from the capital are pleased about the gender balance, it puts two of them into cabinet. You have a quiet word with the Western Province MPs, promising extra resources and positions in parliament. They aren’t happy but they stay onside. The dissident cabal are caught off guard by the offer of cabinet positions and a reluctant compromise emerges. The Liberal Front phone to say they are on board. Nearing exhaustion, you phone the president to say that you have a deal. **End of negotiation.** [[Start Again]]

#STICK WITH YOUR PLAN You are very annoyed: Parliament has nominated you and you made generous offers. You hold firm: call each leader separately and tell them you are sticking with your plan to allocate 9 ministries to Global First and the position of chief legal officer, deputy PM and 3 ministries to the Social Democrats and 2 ministries to Liberal Front. You give international affairs to the Liberal Front in a swap for regional development and you transfer justice to the Social Democrats in return for defence. You tell each of the leaders that they need to sort out gender and regional balance within their own groups. You will be nominating three women ministers and will have at least one minister in each region. The leader of the Social Democrats asks for further portfolio changes and is not happy about Global First having a minister from the Western Provinces. She has to have 2 from there because of party tensions going back to the regional scandals. This is going to mean the Western Province will have more power than the other regions which is exactly what led to the scandals. She is an experienced leader and acquiesces but tells the PM she will be seeking policy concessions later on regional development. The PM agrees to detailed discussions on this. The leader of the Liberal Front insists he will not govern if the Social Democrats hold the finance ministry. He says the international affairs portfolio is just a bribe and he will not go back to his party. He refuses to engage with any discussion about gender balance. The meeting goes badly and unexpectedly he walks out. He texts you an hour later to say he is walking away from the coalition. Your majority is gone, you call the leader of the Social Democrats and you open negotiations with other parties in parliament. [[Start Again]]

#Offer concessions You are very annoyed: Parliament nominated you and you issued generous proposals. But this is probably your only chance to govern. You decide on concessions. You develop new proposals and agree to meet the leaders. * The finance ministry will go to Global First but to compensate for this, you allocate an additional cabinet post to the Social Democrats. * The chief legal officer will come from the Liberal Front. Given the tensions over finance, you offer the Liberal Front the international affairs ministry which carries high status and also the economy portfolio. The economy ministry covers economic regulation and employment matters. It doesn’t have a big budget but it does offer influence in key areas. * You are magnanimous with your own party offering ministries to the dissident cabal, albeit some of the lesser portfolios. Having taken finance for Global First, you forego having a minister from the Western Province. [[Offer concessions continued->Offer concessions continued 3]]

#Offer concessions continued... The Social Democrats are mollified by the new proposals, they wanted finance but are happy with education, justice, social affairs and regional development. These are big spending ministries. They will have very strong gender balance in their team. They believe that the Liberal Front will face a media backlash for their refusal to promote women and anyway they plan legally binding gender quotas at the next election and they have the portfolio required to do this. Liberal Front are still not sure. They are pleased with the legal officer concession but they haven’t gotten the ministries they wanted but neither did the Social Democrats, that helps. They are having none of the gender balance. They go away to think about the offer. The leader phones later that evening to grudgingly accept. The meeting with your own party goes better. The finance ministry is a big win and the MPs from the capital were always pleased about the gender balance, it puts two of them into cabinet. You have a quiet word with the Western Province MPs, promising extra resources and positions in parliament to compensate for the loss of the ministry. They are not happy but they stay onside. The dissident cabal are put out that the cabinet negotiations have gone well but they can say nothing. After a busy week, you phone the president and notify her that you have agreement on the cabinet. **End of negotiation** [[Start Again]]