#Background
The fictional Union of Fourtopia is a unitary parliamentary democracy encompassing four nations, each with their own national histories, traditions and distinct cultural identities: Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland. The Union has existed in its current form for some 100 years. Prior to this, the neighbouring state of South Quatriland had also been a member, but it seceded following a bloody war of independence.
The capital of Primaria – Cosmopolis – also serves as the capital city of Fourtopia as a whole, and Primaria is where much of the state’s wealth, business interests and political power are concentrated. This has been an increasing source of frustration and resentment in Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, where people have come to feel poorly represented, and that their culture, identity and economic interests have been marginalised and subordinated to those of Primaria.
This has resulted, in recent decades, in mounting agitation within Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland for increased regional political autonomy. In the case of North Quatriland, in particular, Quatrish nationalists have been campaigning for some time for full secession from Fourtopia, for unification with the South and the creation of an independent ‘Greater Quatriland’.
These nationalist pressures have resulted in the creation of three regional assemblies in Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, each with their own executive and with authority over a narrow range of devolved issues, including cultural and language policy, primary and secondary education, the environment and economic development. The Fourtopian central Parliament, however, retains ultimate sovereignty and control over all matters pertaining to the constitution of Fourtopia, and key policy areas such as foreign affairs, defence, security and fiscal and monetary policy.
[[Next->Scenario]]#Scenario
You are the Prime Minister of the the Union of Fourtopia. As the leader of the governing Fourtopia Forever Party, you are committed to upholding and defending the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland.
In a recent regional election, the Secundian People’s Party – a Secundian nationalist party – has won a very narrow majority of seats in the Secundian Regional Assembly on a manifesto stressing the right of Secundians to democratic national self-determination and pledging a referendum on full Secundian independence from Fourtopia. The Secundian People’s Party has now formed a new executive and its leader – Tabitha Trout – is the new Chief Executive of Secundia. She has called a meeting with you to discuss this referendum on Secundian independence.
Trout has a democratic mandate for a referendum, but it is unclear whether this would translate directly into majority support for independence in Secundia.
However, the risk of Secundian independence is a profound and existential one for the Union of Fourtopia. Secundia’s membership of the Union is of deep strategic, economic and cultural significance. Its loss would be a severe political blow, and it could trigger a chain reaction, particularly in North Quatriland.
[[Next->What do you do?]]#What do you do?
[[Agree to hold a referendum]] The Secundian People’s Party have secured a democratic mandate for a referendum on independence. Although you are under no legal or constitutional obligation to do so, you should therefore facilitate it. At any rate, it seems unlikely that Secundians will vote for independence.
[[Refuse to hold a referendum]] Constitutional issues are a matter for the central Fourtopian parliament, and the constitutional integrity of Fourtopia is of paramount importance for you and your government. You are not legally obliged to hold such a referendum, and nor will you countenance it.
[[Click to go over the background and scenario again->Start Again]]#Agree to Hold a Referendum
The Secundian People’s Party have secured a democratic mandate for a referendum. Although you are under no legal or constitutional obligation to do so, you should therefore facilitate it. At any rate, it seems unlikely that Secundians will vote for independence.
Outcome: Chief Executive Trout welcomes your respect for her democratic mandate. But she is aware that opinion is divided in Secundia over the issue of independence. Indeed, her majority is very narrow, and the polling is not particularly favourable. She proposes a compromise, a referendum with two options on the ballot: independence or further devolution, including in areas of fiscal and monetary policy which are currently matters reserved for the central Fourtopian Parliament. Determining the precise nature of this new devolution settlement would be a complicated and lengthy process, which would likely also have to involve negotiations with and similar offers to the Executives of Triland and North Quatriland.
**What do you do?**
[[Insist that the referendum can only be on the question of independence]] This should be a simple in/out referendum which should settle the matter definitively. The implications of further devolution are too complicated to countenance.
[[Agree to hold a referendum with both the option of independence and further devolution on the ballot]] This is a neat compromise between you and Secundia’s new Chief Executive, but may require a complicated process of determining how new powers should be devolved if and when that option is chosen by a majority of Secundian voters.
#Refuse to hold a referendum
Constitutional issues are a matter for the central Fourtopian parliament, and the constitutional integrity of Fourtopia is of paramount importance for you and your government. You are not legally obliged to hold such a referendum, and nor will you countenance it.
**Outcome**: The Chief Executive of Secundia is furious with your lack of respect for the democratic mandate she has been given by the people of Secundia. She insists that she and her Executive will hold a referendum regardless, and that she is prepared, if and when the Secundian People’s Party win that referendum, to declare independence unilaterally. She is prepared to negotiate on the precise terms of the referendum, but there will be a referendum.
**What do you do?**
[[Refuse to back down]] Secundia is an integral part of the Union of Fourtopia, it is too important to risk losing, and any concessions will provide succour to other nationalist parties and separatist movements in Triland, and particularly, North Quatriland.
[[Agree to hold a referendum]]: The Secundian People’s Party have secured a democratic mandate for a referendum. Although you are under no legal or constitutional obligation to do so, you should therefore facilitate it. At any rate, it seems unlikely that Secundians will vote for independence.
#Insist that the referendum can only be on the question of independence.
This should be a simple in/out referendum which should settle the matter definitively. The implications of further devolution are too complicated to countenance.
**Outcome**: Chief Executive Trout accedes, begrudgingly, to your insistence on a simple in/out referendum. A date and a question – ‘Should Secundia remain a part of the Union of Fourtopia, like it is now, or should it leave Fourtopia to become an independent country?’ – and a date are set. Initially, the polling shows a majority for ‘Remain’, but as the date of the referendum nears, the gap between ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ in the polls begins to narrow substantially. The Secundian People’s Party are campaigning hard, and it seems your decision not to allow the option of further devolution onto the ballot paper has backfired. Independence campaigners have represented this as yet another Primarian ‘power grab’, and it seems that is becoming widely understood as such. You go on the campaign trail to stress the risks and uncertainty that independence may pose, and your belief in the importance of the union, but you seem increasingly unwelcome in Secundia. There is a real possibility that you will now lose this referendum if you are not prepared to offer some concessions to Secundian nationalists.
**What do you do?**
[[Stick to your guns]] Continue to campaign and stress your belief in the importance and value of the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland. Do not offer any concessions to nationalists who would seek to sunder this precious union, and believe that your appeals will win through in the end.
[[Offer to convene a constitutional convention]] Cool heads and compromise are the order of the day. In order to conserve the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, its constitutional settlement will now need to be re-examined.
#Agree to hold a referendum with both the option of independence and further devolution on the ballot
This is a neat compromise between you and Secundia’s new Chief Executive, but may require a complicated process of determining how new powers should be devolved if and when that option is chosen by a majority of Secundian voters.
**Outcome**: You reach a compromise with Chief Executive Trout, and agree to there being two questions on the ballot paper. The first referendum question will be ‘Should Secundia become an independent country, yes or no?’, the second, ‘In the event that Secundia does not become an independent country, should greater power be devolved to the Secundian Regional Assembly, yes or no?’ The referendum is held and – as expected – Secundian voters reject independence but vote in favour of new powers being devolved to the Secundian Regional Assembly. There is immediate disagreement between you and the Secundian People’s Party about what new powers should be devolved and how. You are keen to limit any further devolution, they are keen to maximise it. Nationalists in both Triland and North Quatriland are demanding with increased volume and popular support that any new powers for Secundia must be replicated for their respective Regional Assemblies. To add to the confusion, Primarian nationalists in your own party are also now demanding a Regional Assembly for Primaria with the same range of devolved powers. A constitutional convention seems the only way to attempt to resolve all of these conflicts.
[[Offer to convene a constitutional convention]] Cool heads and compromise are the order of the day. In order to conserve the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, its constitutional settlement will now need to be re-examined.
#Stick to your guns
Continue to campaign and stress your belief in the importance and value of the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland. Do not offer any concessions to nationalists who would seek to sunder this precious union, and believe that your appeals will win through in the end.
**Outcome**: You pour time, energy and resources into the final days of the campaign, to the detriment of all other government business, and the ‘Remain’ side wins the referendum, but by the narrowest of margins: 51 percent to ‘Leave’s’ 49 percent. Far from settling the issue, the referendum thereby marks a new, deep and profound fault-line in Secundian politics. Buoyed by their near win, Secundian nationalists – styling themselves as ‘the 49 percent’ – commit themselves with renewed vigour to their campaign for independence and calls for a second referendum are almost immediate. You, your government and the union have survived, but all are shaken, unstable and their futures far from certain.
[[Start Again]]#Offer to convene a constitutional convention
Cool heads and compromise are the order of the day. In order to conserve the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, its constitutional settlement will now need to be re-examined.
**Outcome**: Your offer has succeeded in quelling secessionist sentiment in Secundia, for now. Elections are held to a constitutional convention. Overall, nationalists win a majority of the seats: the Secundian People’s Party; the Popular Front of Triland; and the Quatriland National Party all perform well. To complicate matters, Primarian regional parties – North Primaria First and the South-West Primarian Democrats – also gain a number of seats. The convention is charged with finding a new constitutional settlement for Primaria. Its deliberations over-run, first by months and then by years, as parties argue over the detail of particular federalist and confederalist models; what power and resources should be distributed from the centre to the constituent nations; and what share of central state resources each nation is entitled to. Regional parties and factions demand greater autonomy within a framework of nationally devolved power. Eventually, a federal model and formula for resource distribution are agreed. In the meantime, the convention has sapped time, energy and money, and its proceedings have bled into the ‘ordinary’ business of politics. Further, it presents its findings after you have left office. It will be for your successor to decide whether to accept its recommendations.
**What do you do?**
[[The convention’s recommendations are accepted]] This new federal model for the Union of Fourtopia will take time and money to implement, but it will guarantee the union’s longevity.
[[The convention’s recommendations are rejected]] The new government does not have time or the inclination to undertake such a thorough and expensive restructuring of the state.
#The convention’s recommendations are accepted
This new federal model for the Union of Fourtopia will take time and money to implement, but it will guarantee the union’s longevity.
**Outcome**: Constitutional questions are likely to continue to define Fourtopian politics for years. There is a long road ahead yet, and it remains to be seen whether federalist reform and restructuring will reconcile nationalists to and ultimately save the Union of Fourtopia.
[[Start Again]]
#The convention’s recommendations are rejected
The new Fourtopian government does not have time or the inclination to undertake such a thorough and expensive restructuring of the state.
**Outcome**: After all of that time, effort and expense, the convention has solved nothing. Nationalist grievances and aspirations in Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland remain unaddressed and unresolved. It seems likely they will continue to dominate Fourtopian politics for years to come, and the future of the union hangs in the balance.
[[Start Again]]
#Refuse to back down
Secundia is an integral part of the Union of Fourtopia, it is too important to risk losing, and any concessions will provide succour to other nationalist parties and separatist movements in Triland and, particularly, North Quatriland.
**Outcome**: Chief Executive Trout calls a referendum on the question, ‘Should Secundia exercise its right to national self-determination, and become a sovereign, independent nation-state, yes or no?’ which you declare to be illegal and unconstitutional. The referendum campaign is fraught and heated, and your refusal to allow and facilitate the referendum has angered many voters, swaying many of those previously opposed to independence in favour of it. There are angry clashes between pro- and anti-independence factions, and opposition parties in Secundia boycott the referendum. On the day of the referendum itself, police are sent in to confiscate ballot boxes and this leads to widespread violence and rioting. Scenes of nationalist voters clashing with riot police are beamed around the world. And in the event, on a turnout of 51 percent, 90 percent have voted in favour of independence. Chief Executive Trout declares Secundian independence. Fourtopia now faces a constitutional crisis.
**What do you do?**
[[Accept the declaration of Secundian independence]] Secundian nationalists have called your bluff, expressed their democratic right to self-determination and presented you with a fait accompli. There is nothing to do now but concede defeat.
[[Reject the declaration of Secundian independence]] This will not stand. You declare the referendum result void and illegal, suspend the Secundian Regional Assembly and arrest the members of its Executive.
[[Offer to convene a constitutional convention]] Cool heads and compromise are the order of the day. In order to conserve the union between Primaria, Secundia, Triland and North Quatriland, its constitutional settlement will now need to be re-examined.
#Accept the declaration of Secundian independence
Secundian nationalists have called your bluff, expressed their democratic right to self-determination and presented you with a fait accompli. There is nothing to do now but concede defeat.
**Outcome**: In the fallout from the Secundian referendum, it becomes immediately clear that you have lost the support of your party, the Fourtopian Parliament and the people of Fourtopia, and you are forced to resign. Secundian secession becomes a protracted, messy and rancorous affair, punctuated by violence. Quatrish Nationalists plan and hold a similar referendum in North Quatriland which results in similar instability and conflict, and nationalist agitation escalates in Triland. You will likely be remembered as the Prime Minister who brought about the end of the Union of Fourtopia.
[[Start Again]]#Reject the declaration of Secundian independence
This will not stand. You declare the referendum result void and illegal, suspend the Secundian Regional Assembly and arrest the members of its Executive.
**Outcome**: Your move against the Secundian People’s Party results in an even greater upsurge in nationalist sentiment in Secundia, and is met with waves of popular protest, many of which turn violent. Solidarity protests organised by nationalists in Triland and North Quatriland also end violently. It quickly becomes clear that you and your government have lost control of the situation. You lose a vote of confidence and are forced to call a general election. The election results in an upsurge in support for separatist parties. The Secundian People’s Party; the Popular Front of Triland; and the Quatriland National Party all perform well. Secundian nationalists refuse to take their seats in the central Parliament, and a new government is sworn in on a pledge to resolve the constitutional crisis. The integrity of the union is in the balance, and its future is far from certain. You may come to be remembered as the Prime Minister who brought about the end of the Union of Fourtopia.
[[Start Again]]