#Background
The fictional Kingdom of Fruitopia is a small, landlocked country. It is sandwiched between two much larger, more powerful countries: Candyland to the North and Vegetariana to the South. Despite being a small country, Fruitopia’s population is characterised by remarkable diversity. It is home to a number of different ethnic groups, each with their own distinct cultural identities, social structures, traditions and languages. Fruiticans constitute the single largest ethnic group, and they have long dominated state and society in Fruitopia, which has been governed by a Fruitican monarchy for several centuries.
As a landlocked country, Fruitopia is highly reliant on overland routes for trade and access to key resources. The bulk of this overland trade, and particularly imports of oil and petrol, relies on a small number of key border crossings on the Southern border with Vegetariana. The North of the country is mountainous and largely impassable overland.
Fruitopia has very recently emerged from a bloody and protracted civil war, fought between the forces of the state and the insurgent Republican Front for Fruitopian Liberation (RFFL). The war had multiple causes and drivers, but chief among these was the resentment felt by members of Fruitopia’s minority ethnic groups – the Avocadians, the Bluberrians, the Banarnians, the Lycheenians and the Raspberricans – about their exclusion from, and unjust treatment by, a state dominated by a Fruitican elite. Members of these groups tend to be poorer, have generally lower levels of educational attainment and experience difficulty and discrimination when trying to access state services. The RFFL drew support from these groups by championing their demands for new rights protections and greater political autonomy.
The war was brought to an end with a comprehensive peace agreement, signed by the then governing party – Fruiticans Together (FT) – the opposition – the Fruitopian Democrats (FD) – and the RFFL. The agreement stipulates the convening of a constituent assembly to draft a new, more inclusive constitution for Fruitopia.
[[Next->Map 1: Ethnic Groups in Fruitopia]]#Map 1: Ethnic Groups in Fruitopia
<img class='map-image' src='https://res.cloudinary.com/bloomsbury-online-resources/raw/upload/v1627605677/RGP/H/heywood-politics-5e/simulations/Chapter%2013-17/map-1.png' />
[[Next->Scenario]]#Scenario
Under the terms of the comprehensive peace agreement, elections have been held to a constituent assembly, which is now tasked with drafting a new constitution for Fruitopia. Three parties – Fruiticans Together (FT), the Fruitopian Democrats (FD) and the Republican Front for Fruitopian Liberation (RFFL) – have each won around one third of the seats in the constituent assembly. Their profiles and positions are as follows:
FT: Draws support almost exclusively from Fruitopia’s largest and most dominant ethnic group, the Fruiticans. Pro-monarchy. Favour a unitary state and opposed to federalism.
FD: Draws support from liberal Fruiticans and sections of Fruitopian society opposed to discrimination against minority ethnic groups, but also opposed to RFFL violence. No official position on the monarchy. Favour a unitary state, though in practice may be willing to discuss federalism on geographic as opposed to ethnic terms. Committed, above all, to preventing a return to violence.
RFFL: Draws support from Fruitopia’s minority ethnic communities. Republican. Favour ethnic federalism.
The new constitution will need the support of a 2/3 majority of the constituent assembly. After years of fighting, all sides are keen for a peaceful and democratic resolution to conflict. There is, however, a risk that should they become dissatisfied with the constituent assembly process, then the RFFL may abandon it in order to resume their armed struggle.
Members of the constituent assembly are confronted with three decisions: will Fruitopia remain a monarchy, or become a republic; will Fruitopia remain a unitary state, or become a federal one; and what form will federalism take? These decisions will be taken in sequence, but nothing is ultimately agreed until everything is agreed, and the final constitution voted on.
[[Next->Should Fruitopia Become a Republic?]]#Should Fruitopia Become a Republic?
The first task of the constituent assembly is to decide whether or not Fruitopia will become a Republic. FT is pro-monarchy, while RFFL are staunchly republican. The deciding votes are therefore with the FD. If the FD sides with the RFFL on this issue, it may alienate FT (and vice versa). On the one hand, FD members are keen to maintain some continuity and stability in this process of state restructuring. On the other, there are legitimate grievances against the monarchy on the part of minority ethnic groups. The FD are also keen to maintain RFFL support for the constituent assembly and the peace process.
[[The FD sides with FT]]: The constituent assembly will vote to retain the Fruitican monarchy.
[[The FD sides with RFFL]]: The monarchy will be abolished and the new Fruitopian state will be a republic.
#The FD sides with FT
The FD sides with FT, and the constituent assembly will vote to retain the Fruitican monarchy.
Outcome: Long seen as having institutionalised discrimination against Fruitopia’s minority ethnic groups, and symbolically representative of Fruitican dominance and privilege, the monarchy is profoundly unpopular among the RFFL’s supporters. This would be an early seismic defeat for the RFFL, who are now threatening to walk away from the constituent assembly and resume their armed struggle against the state. FT are resolute in their support for the monarchy, but the FD now face a crucial choice as hard-won peace in Fruitopia hangs in the balance.
[[The FD sticks to its decision]]: The FD maintains that on this issue, it is right and legitimate to side with FT in order to maintain a degree of continuity and stability in this process of state restructuring.
[[The FD sides with RFFL]]: For the sake of securing ongoing RFFL buy-in to the constituent assembly, the FD switches its position. The monarchy will be abolished and the new Fruitopian state will be a republic.
#The FD sides with RFFL
The FD sides with the RFFL: The monarchy will be abolished and the new Fruitopian state will be a republic.
Outcome: In this first crucial vote, 2/3 of the constituent assembly vote to abolish the monarchy and declare a new Fruitopian Republic. This is a symbolic early win for the RFFL. It is also a significant defeat for FT. While a majority concede the defeat, the party splits, with a small number of FT delegates leaving to form a new Fruitican Royalist Party (FRP). Faced with this new challenge on its own right flank, FT will struggle to make many further concessions of this magnitude without facing the possibility of disintegration. Such a disintegration of FT might collapse the constituent assembly altogether.
The next decision facing the constituent assembly is whether Fruitopia will remain a unitary state, with all power centralised and retained in the capital, or whether it will become a federation, with some form of self-government devolved to newly designated provinces. The FRP and FT are opposed to federalism: the FRP staunchly so. The FD officially favours a unitary state, but federalism is a popular proposition among minority ethnic sections of its support base. New rights protections for minority ethnic groups is a key pillar of the RFFL’s platform, and federalism is the principle demand of its minority ethnic members.
[[The FD sides with the FRP and the FT]]: The constituent assembly votes for Fruitopia to remain a unitary state. It is the FD’s favoured option. And the FD has at any rate already sided once with the RFFL, and to do so again risks further destabilising FT.
[[The FD sides with the RFFL]]: The constituent assembly votes for Fruitopia to become a federal state. Federalism is a popular policy among minority ethnic groups, and there is a compelling democratic case for devolving power from the centre. It is also a core RFFL demand.
#The FD sticks to its decision
The FD sticks to its decision: The FD maintains that on this issue, it is right and legitimate to side with the FT in order to maintain a degree of continuity and stability in this process of state restructuring.
Outcome: The constituent assembly votes by a 2/3 majority to retain the monarchy. The RFFL is humiliatingly defeated on a key policy commitment and immediately declares that it is withdrawing from the constituent assembly. Members of minority ethnic groups riot in several parts of Fruitopia, while RFFL cadres begin to re-arm and remobilise. It seems that Fruitopia is heading back to civil war.
[[Start Again]]#The FD sides with the FRP and FT
The FD sides with the FRP and FT: The constituent assembly votes for Fruitopia to remain a unitary state. It is the FD’s favoured option. And the FD has at any rate already sided once with the RFFL: to do so again risks further destabilising FT.
Outcome: The constituent assembly votes by a 2/3 majority for Fruitopia to remain a unitary state. The RFFL is defeated on a key policy commitment and immediately declares that it is withdrawing from the constituent assembly. Members of minority ethnic groups riot in several parts of Fruitopia, while RFFL cadres begin to re-arm and remobilise. It seems that Fruitopia is heading back to civil war.
[[Start Again]]#The FD sides with the RFFL
The FD sides with the RFFL: The constituent assembly votes for Fruitopia to become a federal state. Federalism is a popular policy among minority ethnic groups, and there is a compelling ethical case for devolving power from the centre. It is also a core RFFL demand.
Outcome: The constituent assembly votes in favour of federalism by a 2/3 majority. More defections from FT to the FRP follow, such that FT has now lost around one third of its members to the FRP. If the party (and the constituent assembly with it) is to survive, then it will have to be able to present a significant win to its support base soon. There are also key figures within the FD who are becoming increasingly worried about consistently siding with the RFFL. On the face of it, the RFFL is riding high, but if it is to bank its existing victories and see the constituent assembly process through to a successful conclusion, it is likely that it will now have to make some concessions. What room its support base will leave it for manoeuvre remains to be seen.
The final decision facing the constituent assembly is what form federalism in Fruitopia will take. Specifically, it needs to be determined what range of powers will be devolved to new federal units – provinces – and whether these new provinces will be determined ethnically, as proposed by the RFFL (See Map 2) or geographically (See Map 3), as proposed by FT and FD.
[[Next->Map 2: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by RFFL]]#Map 2: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by RFFL
<img class='map-image' src='https://res.cloudinary.com/bloomsbury-online-resources/raw/upload/v1627605677/RGP/H/heywood-politics-5e/simulations/Chapter%2013-17/map-2.png' />
Other provisions of the RFFL’s model of ethnic federalism include:
* Extensive range of powers devolved to the provinces, including in tax and spending, policing and in cultural, language and educational policy.
* Provisions to ensure that the cultural identity of dominant ethnicity in each province is reflected and protected in state institutions, e.g., language of dominant ethnic group in a given province becomes the sole official language in that province.
* All minority languages to become official languages at the federal level.
* Proportional representation electoral system for lower chamber of the Federal Parliament. Quotas for representation of minority groups.
* Upper chamber of the Federal Parliament to be a ‘House of the Provinces’, consisting of delegates nominated by provincial governments.
[[Next->Map 3: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by FT and FD]]#Map 3: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by FT and FD
<img class='map-image' src='https://res.cloudinary.com/bloomsbury-online-resources/raw/upload/v1627605677/RGP/H/heywood-politics-5e/simulations/Chapter%2013-17/map-3.png' />
Other provisions of FT and FD’s model of geographic federalism include:
* Limited range of tax and spending powers devolved to the provinces. Cultural, language and educational policy retained at the centre.
* Fruitish retained as official language in all provinces, with some protection for minority languages at the provincial level.
* Central Commission for the Protection of National Minorities established at the federal level to promote and protect minority group rights.
* First-past-the-post electoral system for lower chamber of the Federal Parliament.
* Upper chamber of the Federal Parliament to be a ‘House of Senators’, with senators elected by proportional representation on a provincial basis.
[[Next->Two Proposed Models]]#Two Proposed Models
Two proposed models for a new federal republic have been tabled for debate by the constituent assembly, and this debate begins in earnest. Buoyed by previous victories, the RFFL are publicly refusing to back down or alter their position. In private, however, there is growing awareness among party leaders that they may now need to compromise in order to protect the gains they have already made. The FD, while keen to hold firm to their opposition to ethnic federalism, remain committed to ensuring that the process does not collapse, and hope that a compromise might be possible. But facing a mounting challenge from the FRP, FT are in serious trouble and appear unable to move from their position. After a series of tense negotiations, the FRP decide to back the FT-FD proposals as the least worst option.
[[The FD switches its position and backs the model proposed by the RFFL->FD Backs RFFL Model]]: The RFFL are insisting that they will not alter their position and the FD does not want to risk them walking away from the constituent assembly. The assembly votes for the ethnic federalism model.
[[The FD holds firm and maintains its support for the model it has jointly proposed with FT->FD Holds Firm]]: The FD remain resolute in their opposition to ethnic federalism. The assembly votes for the geographic federalism model.
[[The FD makes a calculated gamble, declining to vote for either model and insisting that a compromise is possible->FD Gambles]]: The FD calls for further intensive talks between FT, the FD and the RFFL to agree a new model supported by all three parties.
#FD Backs RFFL Model
The FD switches its position and backs the model proposed by the RFFL: The RFFL are insisting that they will not alter their position and the FD does not want to risk them walking away from the constituent assembly. The assembly votes for the ethnic federalism model.
Outcome: The constituent assembly votes by 2/3 majority for the RFFL ethnic model of federalism. First FRP and then FT delegates begin to walk out of the assembly chamber in protest. The leader of FT urges calm, but she has lost control of her delegates. The constituent assembly collapses and the comprehensive peace agreement is voided. It looks as though Fruitopia may be heading back to civil war.
[[Start Again]]
#FD Holds Firm
The FD holds firm and maintains its support for the model it has jointly proposed with FT: The FD remain resolute in their opposition to ethnic federalism. The assembly votes for the geographic federalism model.
Outcome: The constituent assembly votes by a 2/3 majority in favour of a geographic model of federalism. The RFFL do not immediately walk away from the constituent assembly, keen to ensure that their other victories from the process are salvaged. But several nights of rioting follow across Fruitopia. In the south of the country, Avocadians are particularly aggrieved at having been denied their own province, and a series of blockades are organised at the four main border crossings. Fuel and food shortages follow, and the constituent assembly collapses. The RFFL leadership is replaced and its cadres begin to re-arm and remobilise. It seems that Fourtopia is heading back to civil war.
[[Start Again]]
#FD Gambles
The FD makes a calculated gamble, declining to vote for either model and insisting that a compromise is possible: The FD calls for further intensive talks between FT, the FD and the RFFL to agree a new model supported by all three parties.
Outcome: FT members respond positively to the FD’s call, seeing it as a chance to regain the initiative from the FRP. For their part, the RFFL are keen to ensure a successful conclusion to a process which has already delivered them important political victories. Both parties agree to the FD’s proposal.
The RFFL are concerned that they have to be seen to deliver concrete new protections for minority ethnic groups, including in terms of their representation within state institutions, and in key policy areas of culture, language and education. Most minority group members of the RFFL are willing to consider a form of geographic federalism as long as it contains key provisions in these areas. Avocadian members remain insistent, however, on the creation of an Avocadia in the south of the country.
FT members are particularly concerned that no part of the country should be (potentially) cut off from key border crossings, and with protecting the rights and freedoms of Fruiticans in those provinces where they will become a minority. They are willing to accept special protections for minority ethnic groups at the provincial level, and quotas for minority group representation in the upper chamber of the federal parliament, but insist on their being no such quotas in the lower chamber, and on retaining Fruitish as the sole official language at the federal level.
Discussions are heated, but productive, with all sides willing to find a workable compromise. The FD eventually produces a new, hybrid model of federalism (See Map 4), to be presented to the constituent assembly.
[[Next->Map 4: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by FD following inter-party talks]]#Map 4: Provincial Boundaries for the new Federal Republic of Fruitopia, as proposed by FD following inter-party talks
<img class='map-image' src='https://res.cloudinary.com/bloomsbury-online-resources/raw/upload/v1627605677/RGP/H/heywood-politics-5e/simulations/Chapter%2013-17/map-4.png' />
Other provisions of the FD’s hybrid model of federalism include:
* Moderate range of tax and spending powers devolved to the provinces. Cultural, language and educational policy shared between federal and provincial levels.
* Fruitish retained as official language at the federal level, with protection for minority languages at the provincial level.
* Central Commission for the Protection of Provincial Minorities established at the federal level to promote and protect the rights of minority groups within each province. Representational quotas in provincial legislatures.
* Mixed first-past-the-post and proportional representation electoral system for lower chamber of the Federal Parliament.
* Upper chamber of the Federal Parliament to be a ‘House of Provinces’, with representational quotas and delegates appointed by provincial governments.
[[Next->The FD’s new hybrid model of federalism]]#The FD’s new hybrid model of federalism
The FD’s new hybrid model of federalism is tabled for a vote at the constituent assembly. Tensions are running high ahead of a crucial vote.
The FRP make it clear that they will vote against this new set of proposals. FT, however, agree to back them, arguing that they have secured key concessions from RFFL, and that the new constitution will bring sustainable peace to Fruitopia while also protecting the rights of all Fruiticans.
The leadership of the RFFL also signal that they may be prepared to support the proposals. However, Avocadian members of the RFFL are furious that the new model does not contain provision for an Avocadia, which they feel they have been promised. Voting for the FD’s model threatens to divide the RFFL, and the leadership are faced with a choice: continue to support the new proposals and risk splitting the party, or vote against them to maintain party cohesion. There is also a risk that if the Avocadians are alienated, then they could mobilise to blockade the southern border crossings that provide Fruitopia with its vital supply lines.
[[The RFFL vote for the proposals]]: Siding with FT and the FD, the RFFL leadership whip their members to vote for a hybrid model of federalism.
[[The RFFL vote against the proposal]]: The RFFL can’t risk losing the support of the Avocadians, and feel forced to vote against a hybrid model of federalism.
#The RFFL vote for the proposals
The RFFL vote for the proposals: Siding with FT and the FD, the RFFL leadership whip their members to vote for a hybrid model of federalism.
Outcome: The new proposed hybrid model of federalism passes with a 2/3 majority - just. All members of FT and the FD vote in favour. The FRP, as promised, vote against. The RFFL, as feared, splits, with its Avocadian members leaving to form the Popular Front for Avocadia (PFA), who all vote against. However, the remaining members of the RFFL all vote in favour. In the days following, the PFA co-ordinate a series of protests at key border crossings in the south of the country, many of which turn violent. But without the broad support of the wider RFFL, these quickly peter out.
The constituent assembly votes by 2/3 majority to ratify a new constitution for a Federal Republic of Fruitopia. People across the country take to the streets to celebrate, and there are jubilant scenes in the assembly chamber as the result of the vote is read out.
Unrest and unease remain, particularly among Fruitican royalists and Avocadian activists, and there is still a long road to travel to sustainable peace in Fruitopia.
[[Start Again]]#The RFFL vote against the proposals
The RFFL vote against the proposals: The RFFL can’t risk losing the support of the Avocadians, and feel forced to vote against a hybrid model of federalism.
Outcome: FT and the FD vote in favour of the new proposals, but with the FRP and RFFL voting against, the proposition falls. The FD calls for a new round of inter-party talks, but FT refuses, arguing that the RFFL can’t be trusted to deliver on its commitments. FT leaders argue that the constituent assembly has reached a natural conclusion, and call for its dissolution and new elections.
Reluctantly, the FD and RFFL agree to hold new elections. The FRP perform well, over-taking FT as the largest Fruitican party, while the FD and RFFL are punished at the polls for being seen as having failed to deliver. Several smaller ethnic parties – the Avocadian Alliance (AA), the Banarnian People’s Party (BPP), the Lycheemian Provincial Party (LPP), the Bluberria Movement (BM) and the Raspberrican Republican Party (RPP) – are rapidly formed and perform well.
With the new more fractious make up of the constituent assembly, ongoing constitutional talks are liable to be even more contentious and complicated. The future of the Fruitopian peace process hangs in the balance.
[[Start Again]]